Bonus Wagering & Value Calculator
A matched deposit bonus looks generous until you read the wagering terms. This calculator cuts through the headline number and tells you what an offer is actually worth once you account for the playthrough you have to grind, the game you're playing it on, and the house edge chipping away at every bet.
It runs a Monte-Carlo simulation — thousands of imagined attempts at the same offer — so instead of one tidy figure you get the honest spread: how often the bonus clears, what you typically walk away with, and how good or bad your luck could realistically run.
Three numbers matter. Expected value is your average result across thousands of runs — positive means the offer is worth claiming on average, negative means it tends to cost you. The chance of clearing is how often you finish the wagering with bonus money still standing; a high edge or a long playthrough drags this down. The range of outcomes shows the typical band between a good run and a bad one — your single real session lands somewhere in there, rarely on the average. Treat a positive EV as 'worth a go', not 'guaranteed profit'.
How wagering requirements actually work
A wagering requirement is the total amount you must bet before bonus funds (and anything won with them) become cash you can withdraw. A 'x35' requirement on a A$100 bonus means A$3,500 of turnover — and that's bets placed, not money lost. You can cycle the same A$100 through dozens of times as it ebbs and flows.
The catch is that every one of those bets faces the house edge. On a pokie returning 96%, each A$1 wagered surrenders about 4c on average. Across A$3,500 of turnover that's roughly A$140 of expected give-back — which is why a bonus smaller than its own wagering cost can be negative value before you even start.
Two terms decide whether the maths is brutal or fair: whether the requirement applies to the bonus only or the deposit plus bonus, and the game contribution. Pokies usually count 100%; table games often count 10% or less, which quietly multiplies your real turnover.
Picking a game to clear the wagering
The instinct is to grind a low-volatility pokie so your balance drifts gently and you don't bust before clearing. That keeps your chance of clearing higher, but the steady bleed of the house edge means you usually finish with less. It's the safe, low-ceiling route.
A higher-volatility game does the opposite: most attempts die early, but the ones that hit a decent feature can clear the wagering and leave a real surplus. The expected value can be similar — you're just trading a frequent small result for an occasional larger one. The calculator's range of outcomes makes that trade-off visible.
Whatever you pick, check the game contribution and any max-bet rule in the terms. Betting above the cap, or grinding a game that only counts 10%, is the fastest way to void a bonus or triple the turnover you didn't budget for.
How games count toward wagering
Not every dollar bet clears the same amount of wagering — these typical contribution rates show why your choice of game matters.
| Game type | Counts toward wagering |
|---|---|
| Slots | 100% |
| Roulette | 10% |
| Blackjack | 10% |
| Baccarat | 10% |
| Video poker | 10% |
| Live casino | 10% |
Bonus types explained
- Cashable: Once you clear the wagering, both the bonus and your winnings convert to withdrawable cash.
- Sticky: The bonus itself can never be withdrawn — only winnings made with it clear, and the bonus amount is stripped out at cashout.
- Free spins: A set number of fixed-value spins on chosen pokies, with any winnings usually subject to their own wagering before withdrawal.
- Cashback: A percentage of your losses returned over a period, sometimes as cash but often as a bonus with lighter or no wagering.
Worked example: a A$100 match at x35
Say a casino offers a 100% match up to A$100, so you deposit A$100 and receive a A$100 bonus. Wagering is x35 on the bonus only, played on a pokie with 96% RTP that contributes 100%. Required turnover is 35 × A$100 = A$3,500.
At a 4% house edge, that turnover carries about A$3,500 × 0.04 = A$140 of expected loss — more than the A$100 bonus itself. So before luck enters the picture, the average result is roughly A$100 − A$140 = −A$40. The calculator confirms it: negative expected value, a clearing chance under a coin-flip, and a wide range where the good runs bank a tidy sum while most drift backwards. Honest read: borderline-to-poor unless the match is bigger or the wagering lower.
Glossary
RTP
Return to player — the percentage of all wagers a game pays back on average over the very long run, e.g. 96%.
House edge
The casino's built-in mathematical advantage, equal to 100% minus the RTP, taken as an average across everything wagered.
Volatility
How swingy a game is — low volatility pays small and often, high volatility pays rarely but large for the same RTP.
Wagering requirement
The total turnover you must bet before bonus funds and their winnings become withdrawable cash, shown as a multiple like x35.
Expected value (EV)
The average outcome of a bet or offer across thousands of repeats — positive means it favours you on average, negative means it costs you.
FAQ
Does a positive expected value mean I'll make money?
No. EV is the average across thousands of simulated attempts. Any single session can land well above or below it — the range of outcomes shows how far. A positive EV means the offer tips slightly in your favour on average, not that profit is guaranteed.
Why does the game I choose change the result so much?
Two reasons: house edge and game contribution. A lower-RTP game burns more of your turnover, and a game that only counts 10% toward wagering forces you to bet ten times as much. Both push expected value down, even on the same headline bonus.
What's the difference between 'bonus only' and 'deposit plus bonus' wagering?
'Bonus only' multiplies the wagering by just the bonus amount. 'Deposit plus bonus' multiplies it by your deposit and the bonus combined — roughly doubling the turnover on a 100% match, and making the offer meaningfully harder to clear.